Fundamental structural changes notwithstanding rating agencies globally keep getting the same standalone cues for India and India fortunately or unfortunately remains studiedly isolated out of world karma.
For instance, the new Dy governor of the RBI, Urjit Patel might have a hard time marrying the global recovery in auto sales with India’s first Chinese imports and the M&M resurgence as part of any global trend even as China runs ahead to a 19 mln Cars in 2013 projected higher than all of Europe
But then inflation is unlikely to go away as a critical agenda item soon and another is the return of Net Investment by Corporates in Infra or otherwise ( I heard the Infrastructure Commission has been redesignated as the inter ministerial committee on Investment or some such thing, equally incapable of moving the 1000 odd projects waiting for final approval(s) for financial closure and take off. )
The Rupee in the meantime responded to the great optimism in the PMI data and reform cues even as details continue to elude and the question of criminalised politics, a tell tale barometer high mark of inactivity on the horizon become the key issues of the day despite shorts trying for a quick comeback from the new 6000 mark and probably encouraged to journey up their stakes on the ennui coming into the new year.
Lupin and Glenmark remain good picks in Healthcare and Ranga committee’s answers for future Energy projects and thus Gas pricing get closer to being implemented. Reliance Power has already crossed the hurdle where it can now repurpose coal allotted to Sasan to working projects including units at Sasan. The Diesel subsidy degrowth thru steep increases may see light of day only in the second half of the year while the 30% + deceleration in Gold imports by nearly 50 Tonnes per month is apparently not enough for the Indian currency to come back meaning Gold smuggling may have further skewed the data.
Stride Arcolabs also celebrates another good day on the bourses, we also remain optimistic for banks even at a 12800 Nifty to keep getting rewarded for being private sector performance and get questioned for being PSU unless you are PNB or BOB and we hear BOI. The last two could not hold on to any semblance of performance in the last quarterly results either and PNB itself is struggling with increasing NPLs while others seem to be dead in the water including Canara, Syndicate and UBI & UBI.
Credit card spending (ttm November 2012) has recovered but is still 20% below 2007-08 levels and more encouragingly Debit Cards seem here to stay. MNC banks have restarted consumer credit operations as ell but their market share remains below 5% including their strong Corporate Credit business and strctured risk sold to corporate treasuries
Education and Healthcare spending are unlikely to cross the 1.5% mark of GDP for annual spends till the end of the current plan period in 2015. The more things change, the more they remian the same.
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