A quick re-rating of the F&O market in the early trades yesterday meant that writers of the 6000 call had a hurried exit from trades and very few have tried to cap the maarket already at 6100 or any other digits as the markets actually show signs of a breakout. The low volumes of MCX SX are perhaps an open invitation for the short club to try something faster and tighter in F&O trading on that exchange but with index trading not open yet, it is unlikely to have any impact and in this predominantly Asian leg of the bull tour, it is unlikely they will get past petty strategies to break up the trading interest up while 1 in 3 rating agencies have already fallen into the usual rut of calling for India’s derating showing up our lack of faith in India as another 90 days look set to pass without any execution bombs and those analysts and short side traders aree undoubtedly still just waiting for actual policy and roll out execution announcements which can then accordingly be belittled for giving them a leg to stan din the crowded room . Givcen that it is used by most large media as well, the tac has become almost respectable but is painfully obvious and can usually be shot down with larger negative consequences for purveyors like these rating agencies
However the disconnect between investors, foreign brokerages and domestic traders only joints shows up mercilessly as a red flashing risk factor with domestic traders sticking to corporate governance unfriendly scrips and sectors like fertiliser and sugar before policy announcement or choosing unknown branding successes like Sintex (‘pani ki tankiyan jinme jang nahi lagta’) for shorts on a stable market suitably gaining strength for a small pre budget week rally
This rally has a new keeper
Bajaj FinCos (Bajaj Finance and Bajaj FinServ-insco) came into favor largely yesterday as the banks’ tandem with infracos which will lead the new rise of the indian indices has largely been lost with Indian banks ramping up on the strength of the domestic market and their robust balance sheets which will be of use to foreign investors. Infracos led by IDFC have seemingly won a few more partisan traders to their side in this current rally on its trading strengths and while ICICI Bank and IDFC will both rise, PMEAC and RBI favored NBFCs like M&M and Bajaj are more likely to be important investments for the fund hungry infracos and their new leg up post budget.
Budget announcements have come into play but after the unlikeliness of DTC and GST rollouts has already been debated and the futility of unassigning another INR 100 bln odd to infrastructure and prioritising sub sectors is argued out , mostly there is just a wish that PC succeeds in billing down the fisc and the government borrowing in the coming fiscal.
India’s equity friendly outlook carries the day
India remains the only big market ready for a rally and global equities get ready for a sharp cut. The first two months of the quarter substantially shored up business volumes and profits at Hedge funds, PE companies (?? we are as much mystified by it ) and Big 4 investment banks . The global Bank rally being another three month away is probably the reason why this cut could become sharper as UK recession and US tempering down of growth at near 2% GDP levels demonise stable markets. The early global moves in the euro give it one high Six flags slide to come down in and Flash PMIs today from Europe, underlining their inability to survive with 20% lower budgets, tough love for banking and devaluation by the yen esp as competition in Capital Goods exports is considered.
It’s sorry, Indian coffee trades down
Currency wars having been a no show given every FM’s need to follow in the steps of Japan’s Abe sooner than later, Indian currency continues to resist strength on silly excuses woven into the fabric of markets structure as Exports like Coffee suffer a double whammy from India in volumes as production is more than 20% lower and value as indian coffee quality has apparently not registered favor with quality international buyers. Meanwhile Asian coffee offers hope to Indian exporters as Mustard, palmolein (Crude Palm Oil imports) and Onions fall 20%, 33% and 20% respectively to allow CPI and food inflation barometers to cool down or at least not ratchet up the fiscal bill for India Inc. Government borrowing is in control and yields have held at 7.8% desspite the small cut and the unlikely prospects of a cut in the next 6 months
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