India Morning Report: O, The last one is always so hard!

Indias GDP report, in this case will be the last before the turnaround becomes de rigeur for the markets and Services GDP is expected to be much slower than Q3 adding to the Indiaphile’s woes. Index is continuing a bullish move despite the late negative rushes it closed yesterday. US Markets continue upward and lend impetus to the broader Asia theme ( not South Asia) That aside US, India will lead equitis to strong marks this year and India is likely to make up lost time in this dip week sooner than later and one should be extra vigilant to buy nes best scrips in this market.

Markets may continue to 7150 levels as DIIs wait out the GDP report intraday shakedown before stepping up to the plate. Moody’s has increased the offer for ICRA after the S&P experience and that should go by well. McGraw hill Financial owns more than two thirds of CRISIL as well. I believe some Pharma Open Offers are still to come.

The ONGC subsidy bill is higher by marginally less than 20% at INR 550 Bln for the year, Q$ revenue hit from subsidies INR160 bln. BPCL reacted well to cut in profits and strong revenues yesterday and may strt seeing accumulation at higher levels itself after correction as they also contnue intensive Capex plans simultaneously.

The Rupee trade is off and the Indian debt buy has apparently started (still waiting to check out figures, daily data on nseindia.com) The PNB shaledown is final however and a good short will brighten the stocks chances back at lower levels. The Gold pick up is ephemeral as the Gold trade hoits an intuitive low in the local markets if not ont he economic prospects perking up then on the oversupply as import controls are lifted and the lower cost of leasiong for winners like titan industries.

A good rally in debt will strengthen Fund business inflows and bolster them for the equity buying spree to new India charters fructifying on the ground as a new government performs.

Industry growth will likely be negative in the GDP not far from Q3 cuts despite expectations of 0.5% growth. Maruti is the next big short at end of month sales data with whispers coming out before today’s close. Closing trades will correct up on weekly closing and new entry in this market should be avoided thence as Markets will again assess afresh on Monday. Infra and Pharma buying continues thru this week and next led by IDFC

I’ll be leaving Bangalore on Tuesday and may/may not print an Indian Morning Report that day or the weekly US Markets & Economy summary

Late Afternoon : (1% Ashwini) HUL blindsides punters again with a complete range move u p , remains fairly valued at 600

Kotak also sold off the first tranche to under 40% ..Promoter Uday Kotak obliging RBI’s diktat which further requires his individual stakke to come down to 30% by end CY 2016 and 20% in end CY 2018

 

 

 

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