India Morning Report: A sing song rise to 7400 is almost complete


The move up 65 points on Monday meant today the market could reach the high mark of 7400 with a 100 points rise in the Nifty. Given that the Banknifty rise on Monday left ICICI Bank behind and Axis Bank at 1808 can well rest without impeding this rise, the markets will probably reach the 7400 top mark well before the end of the week and the correction thence , completing the Modi at the crossroads rally with a corrective pitching in Thursday ir Friday allowing DIIs to confirm buying. ICICI Prudential recommended yesterday that the market be bought on dips and that is likely to be the recipe for the DIIs fresh from a profitable trade in IT that suffered a near 7-8% dip  yesterday’s trading in HCL Technologies and Infy. HCL Tech promoter Roshni Nadar is taking the family’s focus to Low cost Healthcare for India’s rural poor, the HCL foundation already active in the field of Higher education

IDFC saw a real uptick in interest since the announcement of the new government rising to 133 and ready to breakout to higher levels within this rally period along with infra majors like JP Associates and Relinfra as things crystallise around the budget exercise. The rise in Maruti is probably good fodder for the shorts to latch on to if the correction does ensue this week even L&T as other Gujarat stocks leave it behind. However, more importantly first the markets are likely to define good upward moves back in the defensives and Pharma companies as well, as Energy companies, Gujarat midcaps and the banks totally eclipsed their big losses yesterday, market operators doing their own quick version of the market re-rating badgering down stocks like ITC to 335 levels and HUL also suffering one thought without reason as the coming of controls on inflation and consumer spending/wages are not an automatic autopilot for the BJP government.

Glenmark Pharma should probably concentrate on growth in domestic market after some setbacks from the FDA and a still resilient positive start of secular growth in the US markets Energy stocks understandably take a breather and with volatility down 20% in the defining trade on Friday and continuing on Monday , one should see intra day ranges return to normal 1% bands than the 4-5% ranges seen last week and Monday. Power company results on Monday will likely be swamped soon about concerns over tariff realisations as the new government digs in its heels. Infra bottlenecks are also unlikely to disappear in the next 6 months as Financing has become tougher and local and state issues are likely to swamp any government quick fixes to kick off the sector in desire for good governance grades in 2014-15

The continuing focus on PSUs and PSU Banks over the big weekend has seen the sector catch up with gains in bank funds and even energy funds that benefitted from the late rally in April and May and the market is indeed looking frothy ont he indiscriminate PSU count though the good news is likely to keep the markets in gain till the month of May is indeed over.  Today’s rise in Mid cap indices is probably a portend of an index correction soon after the rise to 7400

DIIs will probably wait for a further 5% fall in IT stocks before buying back assuming an earnings score rated to the Rupee near 55 than the current estimates around 60.

Similarly, the capping of Private Bank prices in todays open predates a big short on the likes of SBI and PNB to come soon unless there is specific news to back the expectation of a big backing for State enterprises from the new lean government likely prescribed by Narendra Bhai Modi for saving Indias democracy, surely on its last legs at a current GDP growth score of 4%

The big question: Will India’s coming budget make real dreams like the first Bullet Train for India?

 

 

 

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