India Morning Report: India Nifty again manages to cross back over 6000

Short interest is flagging and except for proactive shorts who got good prices (unlikely) in the February series during December and January, no one else would have survived the market and shorts have been extinguishing even as Volatility increases and time decay sustains call premiums lower having been written at hefty levels .

Till Cipla reports next Wednesday, the earnings calendar is sparse yet still interesting showin the need to reorganise the calendar again as Jet and Reliance Infra group companies report today and tomorrow but more should have already reported before them including MMTC (today) and NMDC (Monday) Media enterprises like ENIL (Monday) and HT Media (W’day) also remain interesting to those ploughing value in the India’s Consumption story with mainline CNBC (TV18-Monday) and zee reports.  J&K Bank joins Dena Bank and CESC, Stride Arcolabs, Cadila and SunTV(Spicejet) over the Friday leading to weekend – a good breach for value pickers after a consolidation on the index.

The Rupee is up to 62.40 levels after BHEL results on expected lines wiped out the green in the India Capex story. Cuts in Powergrid are likely to be great picks for value building portfolios again, though one can wait for the events foretold in the price cut in the pre open ITC similarily is a great pick, though the trading correction may well be supporting a business volume update post gargantuan price hikes in the tobacco business. As expected YES Bank stayed up and Kotak stayed sold (assuming prop marketmaking holding up levels on zero to negative float) with HDFC Bank also in the middle of its 600-680 range, keeping the Banknifty locked in at 10200 but with much more interest at the upside, volatility increases in the broader market allowing Banknifty to breathe more comfortably without the PSU/performing bank dichotomy

REC is a great pick, PFC and PTC likely even better. IGL and Petronet hopefully getting into value buying sustained uptrends after a week of trading up and down on news. Apparently Cognizant guidance follows Jubilant into another sunset trade for old faithfuls, the IT story never expected by us to get into another stratospheric orbit. After expected quarterly contraction in Singapore and Indonesia at th end of a Chinese fueled investment minicycle, Korean GDP ahs scored a good 4% on annual growth and a sequential pick up in GP as well as Emerging market flows turn positive again in the next few weeks with India firmly in the saddle and excluded from most benchmark portfolios except the salutory 5% odd weight

Indian markets are expected to reach 6100 and most India backers would be willing to go with that till inflows allow for further market aligning in specific sectors outside Consumption and IT bandwagons. RelInfra trades would likely turn south after results with no more than rudimentary backing by marketmakers already aligned to the stock

Morgan Stanley and BofA feeling bullish about India is not necessarily good news, bth having lasted the entire rally since July and probably tired stockicking likely to lead to market accidents or at least easier targeting by the dime a dozen shorts

Jet Airways is definitely a value pick at 220 levels but bad news continues to dog the stock. Aban Offshore seems to be the only LPG stock consolidating gains from the large market changes in the sector. I am still bearish on Gol from here so I do not see liquidity conditions in Banking changing anything on the interest rate scenarios including th interbank markets, but overseas market spreads for India deb have probably tighted perceptibly given the anti cadence in more sensitive markets

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s