India Morning Report: Expiry, Policy jump, Vettel at Airtel and a difference between Ukraine, Turkey and India

sinbadThe overnight return of the Emerging Markets this morning in ASia was none helped along by continuing waiting for news on the Taper Wednesday but India’s own policy will be stable, stoic and yet enough to motivate the markets ith the Banknifty at 10,500 laying the grounds for a bull trap that might finally work after ages.

Bears got the markets at 6200 again, the fall below 6170 precipitated mostly by Rollover computations in jeopardy. Maruti’s lookahead to today’s earnings may have helped but we think that performance remains sub par and there is more yen volatility on the horizon, trades continuing from 100 or stronger levels on the Yen back to the original 110 target for the year. The GDP forecast in today’s published review has barely any chance to score to 4% in April let alone any number RBI may still hope for in the policy. Banks should continue expanding NIMs despite the HFS effect loaded in Q4/H2 with easy liquidity and yields stuck in almost non-existent liquidity cuts which continue to be required for the same reason.

Indian Exports have inched close to the $325 Bln target and definitely do not need additional level punched in by hot money or market sponsoring of IT non-performance as the new India peak. The markets will thus expire at higher levels after running to close to 6300 again if not higher, the momentum on the positive side jumped by crossing over 6200 and 6250 levels. Volatility barely hit 19 yesterday and ‘proprietary’  longs in the eternal ghouls of  shucked out old fabric like DLF, JP Power, HDIL and Ranbaxy and Apollo Tyre showed up with more than 10% cuts in OI in each easy pickings for daily bears when a brief surge in panic put paid to a lot of outstanding long trades on Monday

Idea’s ARPU score improved to 169 again ( been a little volatile since 2009 including the last 5 recovering quarters) and es I do believe the full margined Indiabulls is close to being the scum that plays the hurt wheat in a festival of crushing chaff just in 6 hours and some few of trading.

Thankfully, including HSBC there are still a few advisors and boutique investors left out there that already under stand a difference between India and the Turkeys, Ukraines and even the Rand trades of South Africa.  Mexico’s recovery again is being clubbed with a fully private island (economically) of Thailand and that probably means the depth there is much weaker as most EM investors stay fully stunk in China, Russia and even Brazil. A glaring difference in most is the ease with which investors engender volatility in the Economy, Japan and India resilient to the charm

Tata Motors’ tailspin could continue as there are barely any reasons including Ralf X’s designer JLR bets for buying and investing in the stock. Tata Steel seems to have run out again waiting for the jump back in metals for further gains in Steel, which could steel ( silly, naive me) if construction in infrastructure picks up or being confused with a residential construction and auto slump  that is also extending the slump in Cement and other manufaturing bets, closer to a deflation in the core than one might think ( seriously just preppy talk)

Glenmark is up 10% from its recent all-time lows at 500 and GAIL shows a lot of promise. Today’s trades have finally rewarded IDFC and not beat it down with the Jhabla trades in chicanery beat down in a half day yesterday morning in Unitech and DLF

I respect both above for example but only when thy are near creating performance  and they definitely are not quasi- bets in private infrastructure holding on to an inelastic line created by their pricing power and always illiquid markets despite a surfeit of available built up real estate. Aswini as usual back in the morning with a straight face after recomending bear trades n BTST at closing yesterday but 6135 was certainly out of whack yesterday itself and markets did refuse to move north at closing despite every reason.

Gopal Vittal gets anointed as CEO and MD at Bharti Airtel and Formula 1 season is not so far away. Students and Analysts at work should not follow the woefully fashy and flashy titling on the report.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s