India Morning Report: Markets open week with 6500 in sight, India hits stride (Business as usual)

Discontent emerging in the divide

The 30% electorate hiding underneath the planks of a whirring Economy in erudite and the shadow economy, showed up in strength to drive home their preference for a non political vote, loosely coupled to issues and worryingly coupled to AAP’s own concoction of manifesto promises at the local level. The markets however are apparently celebrating the vote for BJP led stability in this trademark play. The Rupee has already retracted to 61 levels after opening near 60.75 levels and equities have opened at record highs around 6400. Yields (10-year) have traded up to 9.13% including the days trading as the RBI policy announcement is just more than a week from now

Midcap and PSU Bank investors are standing by (Quant broking and Nikunj discussion on ET NOW) but the stock selection has worked wonders for the confidence and at long last the pockets of the FIs investing into India at the bottom of the cycle unfazed by DII sales and worries of a failing Indian economy

Markets could keep these gains again even as volatility trades remain impossible with strangles holding sway again at the new levels allowing writers to walk away with a rapidly growing Derivatives market in terms of all profits made. F&O trades have to be switched to a 6300 sold put and 6500 sold calls for the time being, with unhedged writes or hedged with weak end of the rainbow OTM strikes befitting the large volatility moves

The return of the L&T and BHEL trades in a universe of very few great stories shows up India’s hand n the markets and markets are unlikely to go swinging up from here as well, markets moving in block moves good for probably the entire month and 6500 a likely try for traders from current open levels

AAP’s apolitical mandate is likely to grow in other stats as well but political options are likely to change equations in the next General elections, a big risk facing Modi backers from here. Congress has maintained most vote shares especially as Chhattisgarh results showed and MP and Rajasthan ar e notoriously aligned to both sides of Congress and BJP in successive election decades, cycle spanning 2-3 General elections and state elections. AAP should consider formal linkages with likeminded hell raising Tea Party’ians in the US Congress

ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are good trend trades on the upside with levels unknown till the market tires out without funds flow supporting the euphoria by next Monday, while IDFC has come back strongly , this time without Citi and Macquarie portfolios running it or their being any strong correlations with the non infra realty pack. Midcap stories continue to be generously endowed with interest as the consumption take off continues to ramp up and make the inflation story insignificant. Congress (and BJP!) however has repeatedly lost with strong cries denying “accepting the verdict in all humility” but it seems more transparently this time a vote for stability. India should  finally learn to emulate the Rajasthan model in the General elections and go with the winner from the start instead of getting into another era of desi hotch-potch coalitions

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6 thoughts on “India Morning Report: Markets open week with 6500 in sight, India hits stride (Business as usual)

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