India Morning Report: Volatility(India VIX) has another 40% upside, the last series is a rush

Maruti Temple

Maruti Temple (Photo credit: Terry Hassan)

When markets opened yesterday, the PCR reported was an even stevens at 1.0 and the rush for Open interest additions in All calls from 6200-6800 or all puts from 5800 to 6200 by writers meant the VIX continued to jump in a flat market remaining at 6200.

The trend continues today and with a bull spread easily assimilated, Bullish positions will accrue in the flat market till the written calls can jump the markets near a 1.2 PCR level which means actually a lot of money to be made in this derivative series in the last month of the Calendar year as the Dow unwinds most of the gains in the previous two weeks.

Indian markets will drift but look like making all time highs sooner than later as the bottom catches up with 6200 while the VIX continues its move up. If you notice, in the calls for a saturated market the buy calls today are  a distinct extension of the same stock selection begun in August 2013.

PNB has finally been given the green light wth its better provisioning implying a bigger bull weight to the stock esp as PSU banks remain a big no and that means a lot of exits. The market saturation commentators probably used the SBI series to make the point but the same is more an indication of a fundamental disavowal from the State Bank stock as it remains a primary conduit in the highlighted Asset quality factors Fitch underlined in yesterday’s report to 15% NPL levels by March 2015.

ICICI Bank remains a buy on longer terms and if indeed it is available cheaper from 1080 levels it will be at the erstwhile 1035 for the day traders and accumulators Delhi goes to the polls tonight and next Monday counts will be in from the State Polls, lending  strategic beginning for the incumbent Congress and probably its last chance even as Modi makes a fool of his self in oratory and may cut his speaking engagements towasrds the end so his work record can be taken to the elections. A distinctly uneasy feeling to hear that sound of voice and it is likely to set in as a big fail for BJP on the national stage in some vaguely deviant way wihth a confused young electorate holding the keys to the next Government in Delhi ( Centre, not state)

Back in the cash markets, stocks selected are likely to gain fast colors soon as the Manthan is almost over and equity inflows substitute bond outflows near the next inflation rate hike as Money supply remains subdued and counters the rate hike rate cut philosophy underlining the wider disenchantment with trying and making money esp in India and the recovery looks to run sharer this quarter bringing banks back into mainstream picks without the PSU weighted Banknifty dragging individual winners

HDFC Bank has also suffered in the negative sentiment in aut markets and while the CV market and its loan portfolios like NBFCs and Indusind Bank remain sluggish and give of fthe all pervasive urge to cut weights in India, the rest of the retail Auto markets and Finance majors are probably set fro an upturn. November sales were especially cruel on Maruti and even Hyundai even as Ford rested on a steamed u 4000 units i export, resulting in almost 12k units for the month near its best yet.

Domestic shares of auto companies continue to shrink for everyone vbecause of the troubles with buying a Hyundai a Tata motor product like the Nano or anyther Three cheers to Darashaw Technicals for catching the exit point in HCL Tech. Notice again, the veracity nd the preponderence of select buy calls showing the winners of India Inc, this is the time to build the portfolio. Motherson Sumi(speaking on ETNOW) is one of the select auto ancilliary mid caps that will also build a market catch all in this specific turnaround time with strong order books and improving margins.

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6 thoughts on “India Morning Report: Volatility(India VIX) has another 40% upside, the last series is a rush

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