India Morning Report: Energy cos can rise despite Export parity?

Graph of the Gross Domestic Product GDP (at Pu...

Graph of the Gross Domestic Product GDP (at Purchasing Power Parity-PPP), per capita, as a function of per capita Toes. Year 2004. Data available online at http://www.iea.org (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here are the numbers the Kirit Parikh committee is dealing with. Export parity is going to impact GRMs by $2.30 per barrel. However, other things being the same (KP) we agree with Quant broking that Oilcos are the major drivers apart from the metals in the new bull run as 5750 settles in after F&O unwinding (hopefully). Quant Broking also reminded us of the important fact which markets latched on to in 2005 and forgot in the melee on the Dollar and the depleting growth rates since.

BPCL has managed to keep a very low price to Book multiple I would add that it also has a better cost base though the numbers have to come from a research desk hour. In reserves according to Quant, BPCL scores upto $200 bln in reserves wich allow it to be a god enough for portfolios even as the rush is already on in IOC on the strong Dollar. BPCL is es superior in btter ROI diversification thru available capital and retail distribution not available to IOC

Coal and other weak Corp governance stories keep falling through on easy catches by incoming investors avoiding a bigger standoff not unlike the Vodafone GAAR standoff in the same President’s times. admittedly, India’s unsuitability has become a more understood variable globally. However we stick to the view that it is still a better non OECD destination than any other BRICS or other markets including China and the Turkey s or Russia and Brazil with obvious fiscal holes that cannot be equated to India’s intractable sub 4% minimum

Again one on the flip side finds the idea that Maruti and M&M can thus be sold on the idea of expanding rural markets laughable though HDFC Bank would be a good idea , eve within auto loans if not for its overall rural and small town breadth, even as PSUs continue with their traditional problems.

Real estate inventory levels are scary and the market (working) definition of real estate as a market whose asset prices cannot come down because of along other things costs and commitments already incurred, make asset bubbles a fertile ground for research even here despite a healthy domestic consumption share and lower incidence of flipping with potential for more salaried young upper class buying better homes than anywhere else except China’s metros.

The other is the big solution of the CAD which has suddenly hit the saffron wannabe ET ( probably because it hates FDI in media or being stuck with sick company notices like the rest of the Indian newspapers)

Though the inflow rush is obvious, the lowering of invisibles in the import bill, the imported services, may not be good for the Economy nor a reason to not know India and would take a lot of time to uncover in terms of components and future trends. The traded deficit contributing so well that the Credit Suisse forecasts or others of just $50 Bln deficit including the public planned target of $70 Bln are both scary in their matter-of-fact-ness as well. The coming rush of export growth in the period to March even as Advance tax receipts fall and SME portfolios at SBI hit large NPAs would only disclose more skeletons in India Inc’s cabinet even as one of the world’s deepest Financial markets seems to rely the least on Corporate product for its GDP

The Rupee however, has seemingly bottomed at these weak 62.80-63 levels an may well rise back to 60 when these performance improvements land on the commentary and analysis streams in just a few days after September data becomes available ( Right now Q1 data is being release for GDP and Trade on the consolidated quarter basis)

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One thought on “India Morning Report: Energy cos can rise despite Export parity?

  1. Pingback: India Morning Report: Dead Cat Bounce, rebounding earnings on the horizon.. | The India Investment Post (earlier india.advantages.us)

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