India Morning Report : Rally snarled by a lack of fundamental strength (seen earlier)

English: World GDP growth rate and GDP growth ...

English: World GDP growth rate and GDP growth rate of total OECD countries. Data source: World Bank Group and OECD. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though the Indian growth rate will be beyond the reach of most emerging markets and outside the projected future rates for any OECD countries, the growth in GDP below 5% and the return of food inflation is scotching confidence in the markets as it waits on edge for  the Tapering news to go by and Emerging flows to return allocations to India.

Unfortunately today’s report come after closing of day’s markets, a day when the Rupee also snaked down unnecessarily biting its nails on the supply bottleneck hit food inflation which will also probably become the legacy of the Food Security Bill later. The stakes – to get India’s growth rates back to 7.5% and keep inflation in check. With core inflation below 2% the onion inflation index cannot be allowed to influence further investments in India

Our note however can still remind investors that not just Consumer Durables but the consumer staples sector, offers a unique opportunity in India among the listed scrips and current 30X multiples in the sector may be no sign of investor saturation as bellwethers like ITC and Bharti are rare publicly listed behemoths in the sector which have also successfully avoided the defensive tags unlike the Pharms biggie Cipla where investors move after things come full cycle at Ranbaxy and European CPG pioneer HUL, now an old story for India Inc. Others in the sector are either privately owned or multinationals and pricing power remains in this sector, with its packaging strategies and working capital cycle flexibility in brand selling working them the advantage required to absorb supply chain inflation and raise prices at the right time.

The other story of the morning was the inelastic August Demand for Full fare airlines as the price increases amounting to more than 60% on the Delhi Bombay sector even in he best fare book-ahead rate plans could not stop passenger traffic from returning to a positive 3.3% growth in August. Such ricing power is important in this market where Oil is a major component of the import bill.

As usual it may als be prudent to realise also that India of tomorrow is unlikely to return to the same power ahead growth strategies that worked from 2001-2007 , the meat of the post reform era growth and that the required infra and other capx growth has to wait for the May 2014 elections to complete and that will not stop inflows to India, making the brakes in the market to 5800 a mere hiccup as long as the Taper is an expected number and flows return to Indian sovereign debt as it attempts to brake the shackles keeping it from the Global Bond index  and to Indian equities on reallocation

 

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2 thoughts on “India Morning Report : Rally snarled by a lack of fundamental strength (seen earlier)

  1. Pingback: India Morning Report: The Capital Goods chimera fools no one | The India Investment Post (earlier india.advantages.us)

  2. Pingback: India Morning Report: Markets negative ahead of expected rate action | The India Investment Post (earlier india.advantages.us)

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