Unknowingly for those of the common Indians and even market commentators across long term and sort term watchers, India has again stabilised around rates at 9% and The Rupee after a 23% move ( which was completed in a month) finally pulling up a notch of two at 66. Interest rates are at 9% and the markets bounceback on Monday Morning seems actually sustainable.
The earlier volatility ending stops at 9% rates and 4% growth were ofcourse around quarterly growth lows, Markets and Central Bank almost decided on a bounceback on the unfortunate low, but this 4% pitch seems to be likely now for a whole year of growth concerns at India Inc.
Again markets did show resilience in responding to the new Oil Swaps on Thursday with equities stopping the down rush at 5400 itself, but there is no forward momentum now except as EM weightages again cause money to flow back into the same selected investments which popped off selling because of reduced value causing weightage overflows on EM equity portfolios.
A war has been averted though Assad Bashar is o n the loose in the Middle East and Indian Oil is still at a minimal risk from the geopolitics of the last surviving dictatorships in Oil.
In sectoral terms as ET data would like us to believe, interest isback as much in Textiles as in Banks and Finance companies. IDFC and Banks will lead the show from here ofcourse andas Ambit Capital suggested, it is still a little early for interest in Autos but it will eventually happen for FMCG investors. Chinese Shadow Banking woes could affect the slightly positive outlook from here for Exports. It’ ood to see the Banks having started te day at 9200 levels again on the Bifty (Banknifty). It was a bad month for Autos, Exports and the currency but we already know that.
Again, rage of motion at this time could just be crimping up on the 50 share index as at 5500 it has broken down just last week and that would mean this stabilisation could have engendered a big fall but for EM inflows returning in a couple of months.
No, the hike in Diesel and Petrol prices are of significantly less positive value than the shutdown of fresh investments in Exploration and Production ( see a list of Projects from Reliance which need Government investment in today’s ET) and similar non events in infrastructure more tough fo India Inc than the Food and Land Bills progress, though the markets’ are not disappointed
For the Agricultural shot in the arm in GDP calcultions, a reminder that our expor markets in any agricommodity are not price incsensitive and have mostly shown a declining share of Indian exports.
- India crisis deepens: Rupee down by 14% in August (emirates247.com)
- Rupee nears 69/dollar; posts biggest day fall in 18 years – Reuters India (in.reuters.com)
- India Morning Report: GDP forecasts look for their pound of flesh, india inc reports (This week in Asia on The Banking and Strategy Initiative: advantages.us) (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India’s Nifty Futures Swing Between Gain, Loss Before GDP Data – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- India Morning Report: The next sharp move in the Rupee is still nigh (awardz.wordpress.com)