India Morning Report: The next sharp move in the Rupee is still nigh

The Oil wars are and with US Supplies stockpile engendering a highlighted war equation, the situation could turn grim. This Friday closing is thus not like the other weekly closes in terms of markets losing short positions and trades, and it may instead see profit booking in larger dollops. One assumes therefore the sharp increase in Open interest would remain with the likes of HDIL and Sun TV and the banks open interest would continue to rise much more slowly and the 5400 cap could in those trading terms alone, define the entire September series hitting the wall at 5300 in favor of short interest to pick up once the market dips from 5400 to those levels, which has started off on a clean plate, only longs rolling over.

The advantages to shorts rolling over are the market pricing more finely in those conditions with the added liquidity(depth) to trades with the premium esp in the Indian market removing rational investor interest rather soon in the Futures and Options derivatives markets. Witness, even in the currency the only trades that made it were structured Double or Quits and higher multiples.. excluding even a lucrative CDS market in India Bonds and Sovereign. Oil swaps come with the caveat that payment problems exist to the same extent with International payment systems complying with bans es for Iran and one can assume Syria

Airtel Digital TV Review [Updated]

Airtel Digital TV Review [Updated] (Photo credit: code_martial)

One can assume also that after a 14% cut in FMCG in August, ITC’s ‘comeback’ would also bring back interest in brands like Bharti ‘Airtel’. Though GDP Q2 data would not be a trigger and long interest remain with such undervaluation

The 75 target for the currency is here from BofA ML and as I said below 68 the box is from 70 to 77-78 levels before the market interest outlasts any post analysis of the fll. Those thus aking this 68 level an occassion for post analysis would likely be lost even without any sizable crossfire in the battleground! Lets face it we actually need exports to grow a sizable bit in response to any depreciation for more than IT profits of the next quarter for India Inc

Watchmen: The End Is Nigh

Watchmen: The End Is Nigh (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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One thought on “India Morning Report: The next sharp move in the Rupee is still nigh

  1. Pingback: India Morning Report: Rupee at 66, GDP Growth at 4% and Interest Rates at 9% | The India Investment Post (earlier india.advantages.us)

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