Of course, we are still correcting to a lower range and I would even think the market could now top out at 5850 which would be dangerous as that would probably break the market uptrend for good.
While some of the unsure network analysts playing safe including Mitesh Thakkar on ET have opted for upticks in Wipro and Lupin, I would rather the markets are indicating secular break from the vote down mid week and banking and autos would lead the comebacks.
For the markets to sustain on its strengths now that India inc has discounted the political storms as no more than the morning cuppa, it should retrace higher than 5950 and thus the afternoon session or midweek next week could again see this morning session being negated to start from a better ground but around the 5600 mark only.
The bull picks in M&M, Bajaj Auto (Sukhani, TV18) and Maruti would be the big winners and ITC IDFC and ICICI Bank continue as bedrocks of the long portfolio. HDFC Bank seems to be still battling issues of Foreign limit being exhausted but is up in this mini trend while the short on DLF (Sukhani, TV18) is a great pick as the markets finally do not want to take a directional trend in the remaining series and battle overvaluation in the remaining scrips.
There is no solution for India’s daily challenges but it is to a degree, the sustainability that comes from middle class and bureaucratic institutions and cultural mores that keep it going and keep business and pleasure immune from political and social pain.
Financially, forcing RBI to cut rates would only keep the fixed income markets moving higher on yield especially as there is a fracture between the higher floating yield curve’s tough love and the macroeconomic indicators actually pointing to growth that remain bereft of real investment support while neighbours and not so young markets like Thailand and Turkey stay with carefully worked out long only bets sweetening the long only trajectory of economic perspicuity that was associated with India for some time.
The short bets in the March series should have been closed in yesterdays pre closing session and no new shorts in options could yield much as the time value of decay takes prominence this week. However, though it is non intuitive, a sell in 5600 puts is likely to be the strategy gaining coin the rest of today and Monday, esp if you are willing to wait out expiry on March 28. Selling calls would build up above 5750 only.
- Money laundering: RBI gives clean chit to private banks (ibnlive.in.com)
- Bank Results Season (India Earnings): ICICI Bank flashes positivity for a Nifty re-rating (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: And here is the 5850 test again (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Budget day sentiment likely to collapse (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India’s ICICI Bank suspends 18 employees in money laundering probe (uk.reuters.com)
- India Morning Report: global investors look to India after India Inc outperforms expectations (awardz.wordpress.com)