With Goldman Sachs moving its next meeting of shareholders to its other back office in Salt Lake City, Utah, India’s sloth in an optimistic IIP growth of 2% and FY 14 downgrades to 6% by a couple of foreign brokerages it was all but sure that Monday’s bad openings would be followed by a tirade to the finish line with Network analysts from Ashwini to SS and Udayan Bose (TV18) pining for the 5500 mark to make the uncertainty go away. Of course that also unleashed the India outsourcing Bull with IT companies a safe bet and TCS the largest Market Cap company ahead of Reliance Industries.
However, sanity has returned to the market since with interest and eyes returning to Indian equities and the Dollar index having recovered its paces since the Yen correction at the start of the series without the Yen losing any of its pressure to cross parity to the Dollar and the Euro denizen of Germany proving that it is unlikely to feed its south neighbours including France (conceptually) anything other than Target liabilities for the growth spend everyone was sure Germany has keeled over for. Germany preponed its budget exercise to reaffirm its primacy of fiscal discipline as the Euro recovered last week’s blues since and the EU summit failed to move on any of the agenda items. The European economy still needs to work out a longer timeline for its recovery.
Trade deficit data however points to a tight cap on US GDP growth for 2013 and similar warning bells toll for Exporting countries like India and China though EU and Japan look at the small recovery in both Capital Goods exports and imports numbers for US in February Capital Goods trade up by a net $1.1 Bln in the ever increasing Trade deficit and a bleak month for the US in terms of the shored up Fiscal surplus breaking down along expected lines in February’s big Fiscal deficit.
India too therefore looks at a larger trade deficit even as Oil prices come down by over $10 in the last 30 days with Exports barely maintaining the newer levels it managed in the last throes of 2008-2010 and February’s deficit of $14 B is likely just an aberration after January’s $20 B hit.
Markets look better in equities from banks climbing despite the fourth estate coup against the top 3 private banks looking to make a mark in wealth as brokerages rang the bell for State Bank and the stock climbed up 3% in Banknifty’s climb back above 12000. The attention on ITC which was almost a giveaway for the lack of short interest in the broader market also encouragingly continues and the picks on Bajaj Auto should also bear long again than continuing south or short as last week. NALCO and RCF Offers for Sale also look lined up to complete successfully with LIC’s participation in the OFS taking its stake to 6% in RCF. The residual stake sale in Vedanta’s BALCO and HZL investments could really brighten up India Inc’s balance sheet in the current fiscal itself but one cannot gauge the impact of continued market confidence to the T given the fourth estate’s penchant for equating accountability for the government with all lack of information and analysis on any story /subject
- India on the verge of losing third Test match (expertscolumn.com)
- India Morning Report: New Private Banks circa 2013 and a Fiscal Responsibility Map for the Republic (awardz.wordpress.com)
- HSBC, Morgan Stanley lower India’s growth forecast to 6% (thehindu.com)
- INDIA MORNING REPORT: A Bid on the State Bank results, are Coal and Steel indeed back? (awardz.wordpress.com)
- Goldman, JPMorgan Ordered to Fix Capital Planning by Fed – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- India Ink: Image of the Day: March 14 (india.blogs. nytimes.com)
- India trade gap narrows (bigpondnews.com)
- India’s exports up 4.25 percent; trade deficit narrows (indiavision.com)