India Morning Report: A new high for the Nifty looks likely in the run up to the Budget 2014

Rahul-gandhi

Rahul-gandhi (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though the Planning commission decides most of the Capital investment allocations beforehand including government’s share of state spending and Big Ticket Infrastructure spending, the Bidget document next month is still likely to give enough impetus to the incumbent government to approach the General elections in 2014 positively ‘under new management’. Apart from Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the throne which needs to be sponsored or vetted by India Inc sooner than later, India is now mostly looking at global cues after, as the MOS man, Raamdeo Agrawal said on TV18 right now, problems in both the energy and IT services sectors have been resolved for the time being.

We are headed for true deregulation in energy prices and that’s a relief for ratings hawks as well as those items of profligate public spending when it was indeed all getting burned up in oil spend (subsidy)

A few items of trivia glue that has confetti sticking to India Inc’s big weekend party and the world at large before we begin the Monday Morning Dharma. China’s labor force has decreased by a large 3.45 mln this month from more than 940 mln last year. GDP growth in China was yet 7.9% after a 7.4% November taking the 2012 number to 7.8% overall and likely saving it from recession adding just under 3 mln in new jobs, and urban populations almost stopped growing with expected rural migration to 712 mln (urban population)

Also our working population of women may be interested, women seem to more heart attacks on Saturday and Monday and as this data pertains to North America, it can pertain to only Working women and not homemakers. Heart attacks are 27%  more likely to occur around your birthday, and though this article pertains to our female friends, in our country at least more men than women die of heart attacks)

Swiss banks are indeed closing down, the first one in the world at Wegelin the first victim having started in 1741 but Davos is still happening with the world’s wealthiest and the large Bank CEOs and Presidents making it there to party into the night. JP Morgan CEO Dimon though paid out $11.5 mln half his 2012 package for indiscretions as head of CIO investments. Global banks have paid nearly $5 B in fines between HSBC and UBS for regulatory oversight and half , especially those with European lineage are shutting down their business in Investment Banking

More importantly the Aussie is roaring back even as US markets remain closed today and the BOJ likely to hit the precipice button when they meet on QE spending for Japan later in the day, the Yen already circling 90 and in recent history reaching almost 25 years since it has eyed the 100 mark to the US Dollar, let alone the AUD

Taxes on the super rich, seem unlikely unless the next General elections cause another rupture in stability that the media is almost imperceptibly wishing for, to solve their quads of issue boredom. Another month and we will be just tlaking budget wishes in duty cuts and tax writeoffs in the run up to the budget , all serving to mask any new legs of India’s Economic policy that may be unleashed in Budget 2014. Stock up on big banks and Infracos apart from the leads on NBFCs unless you had indeed been waiting for Infosys and OIL to come back, whence you must book profits this week and watch. The OIL divestment will indeed release nearly 30 bln for the GOI fisc blues. Another interesting issue taking shape is how the regulators and FinMin will stop the bleed as MNCs dry up profits with larger royalties back home leaving their now not to be delisted Indian arms with nothing to entice domestic shareholders and a government backlash is inevitable despite the GOI having allowed then unlimited royalty just in December 2009

 

 

 

Advertisements

One thought on “India Morning Report: A new high for the Nifty looks likely in the run up to the Budget 2014

  1. Pingback: India Morning Report: The Budget(ed) Roadshows, the royalties and the burden of the beast « A blog of blogs

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s