India Inflation Report – October 2012

WPI series was not expected to provide a falling trend but with August data revised to 8.02% and September at 7.9% the October score at 7.45% is a real outperformer for India Inc. Fuel inflation even at 11.71% for the month is still not as high as it gets but Primary articles data (also revised higher for August) suggests that apart from core inflation at 5.95% ( manufactured pdts) and 6.6% (food) even the primary articles data is in control. CPI however has gone nose up for the last three months hitting 10%(9.98%) at rural and composite levels(9.75%) this month

Primary Articles Inflation for october 2012 is 8.2% down from 8.4% in September and 8.77% in August 2012. Diesel hikes will probably still show up in higher inflation data till January 2013.

Industrial growth dipped precipitously again in October but the whip in the data due to Consumer markets can already be seen to be a lie as one can see from Festival sales reports including record 100K Hero Bike sales on Sunday fest and will climb back giving credence to recovery believers including Goldman Sachs though Credit Suisse tries to see Bank restructuring as a bad start for the rest of the FY of India inc after Diwali ( see next piece, up above)

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