India Morning Report August 27, 2012: Markets periliously close to a breakdown

Forex Reserves Data of $288B and Bank Credit growth at less than 17% did not help matters as international investors get exposed to the increasing weightage to non governance in the mix in India. the large scale investments made by FIIs in the last three months preclude a quick death but any one significant withdrawal should set off the bells after the Banks had a dull weekend and the banknifty copped out of expiry targets yet again

However there is still achance that the markets go on from strength to strength as nothing ou tof the ordinary has happened last week in Indian polity and it is often argued that this opposition is sketchy at best and likely ineffectual and just trying populist stunt at the cost of more influence banks for their future. 

The NDTV suit against WPP will also be critical in improving some influence architecture in this large democracy where billions are lost in one such switch of tastes and ideas including our long term infrastructure map which has largely been ineffective because each advisor tries to force down a different approacha nd execution suffers no heed given to the years of work leading up to that time and nothing off the ground per se. 

Asian data for August is likely to follow a similar pattern from June and July with buoyancy inr etail following US success in the consumption economy again including low but increased credit card spending in Korea for the first half . China’s Flash PMI for the month laid flat the claims of a bogus recovery as it dropped from 49.2 to 47.5 

Markets seemingly may not deign the fall on Friday as important esp if even some salutory chicken fix is made on the situation in parliament. Though the range for the index has moved up significantly and India’ shas come out of a simple bottom in economic data unlike China’s complex battles from increased impact of previous plan growth, India does not have the luxury of a direction in its Economic growth and the Expiry could be an easy target for bears before the long term trends show their hand again. 

 

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