As Yes Bank signs on to a 600 bps savings bank deposit rate, and food inflation ticks down from 15 to 11%, the refusal of yields to predicate a proposition in the double digits forsooths that the RBI will stop around here if and when inflation trends down. It seems to me that more of the banking sectors participation is at work here in controlling the rise in interest rates. Incessant lobbying apart, the rising IIP and refusal of inflation to tick down below September’s 9.7% could very well still mean a systemic redefinition of interest rate basis in India like in So Africa.
Instead of defining new zeros in overnight and short term rates treasury liquidity like in the US and UK, the new BRICS entrant has simply defined a higher systemic basis by accepting highe3-5% inflation than the US and UK and EZ targets of 2% at the maximum
Some results from biggies Kotak and Dr reddy also make this New Year holiday in India a good segueway to great market speak on the festival of lights.
Kotak outscored by 20% for a new run rate of $800 mln for the 12 months while Dr Reddy returned to its earlier $2 bln run rate with 9.6 bln and 22.5 bln in revenues respectively. Kotak will be with the biggies in keeping SB interest rates down but market sees a lot of benefit for them in the new regime as PSUs are outpriced for the time being and tackle quality issues
Inflation in vegetables remains at 25% but we are in favor of good growth for the hinterland in MSP raises now 2800 for Chana and Masur and increase again in rice and wheat. Also Hamilton must give hope to Ferdnand also to come up in the ranks as the Buddh provides a chance to speed things up on the F1 circuit
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