Vikram Pandit’s new efforts in India with Kampani’s JM Financial may get JM a 10% bump in stock quotes but it is unlikely that his 50% buy of the subsidiary and 490 million warrants worth 3% of the listed company with Hari Aiyar and wife in the new bank application at this stage will build … Continue reading
Though we did not suspect the political mulligatawny soup that will lead to a face off in the Parliament on the Lankan Tamils issue and should in fact be used by Indian polity to align to US on this issue and come down on belligerent China friendly Lanka, the very least done today in the political arena … Continue reading
Despite the political improbability of this being counted as a standoff by the understanding P Chidambaram, this will be the most advocated course by us as Indian Food inflation starts into gear and despite non Food inflation now being below 4% the banks’ predisposition to trust their models earning a good profit in such rate … Continue reading
RBI thinks inflation momentum measures are showing enough control to allow for a bank rate cut while it will be monitoring further conditions related to momentum measures including controlled International commodity cycles et al . the issue as always in this cycle, has been non manufactured products inflation which continues at high levels despite more … Continue reading
Maybe only 10% can see it well enough to vouch for a bigger CRR cut this morning but the news of Economic bottoming out and the data outlook from infation and IIP could well translate into a big Pre-March boost for the Economy tomorrow. Any boost in the rest of the Financial year is hardly … Continue reading
As expected, fuel inflation jumped to 11.88% and though Food inflation was below 8% a drop of almost 1.5% to 7.86% and primary articles to an almost respectable 8.77% from above 10% the overall inflation is too high for the government already blackmailed by the prospect of rising oil prices to factor in a rate … Continue reading
Given that Inflation was also expected to be lower before the Wednesday announcement for WPI and the Diesel hike importantly, it is understandable that 1 in 5 economists in the latest surveys still expected a rate cut to put pressure on the unruffled Central Bank Governor. Nomura economists and even Breakout Nations’ Author Sajjid … Continue reading
The WPI data begins the catch up with economic data from India for July 2012 after global trends could not break India’s earlier rhythm, though still contused by global shock, with a 52% PMI and a 53 in Services PMI. The inflation came in well below 7% from a 7.25% revised number for June … Continue reading
The use of monthly CPI data for now more than 14-15 months with Y-o-Y inflation comparisons available for 2 months on the trot, it may now be a matter of time before the WPI data becomes secodnary in the Indian scheme. Consumer point inflation though has been refashioned and some may want to verify it … Continue reading
Inflation 6.5-7 % by March Recommends Fixed rate of Diesel subsidy /Litre FY12 Growth at 6.9% ( as per Advance Estimates , GDP to INR 52.5Tln ) Survey projects 7.6% +/- 0.25% for FY2013 FY14 Growth seen at 8.6% Inflation may fall even below 6.5% in FY13 but Monetary policy needs to adjust to fluctuationsin … Continue reading
Hero Moto Corp, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Auto all hit expectations right and made merry of the third quarter encompassing a giant Festival run for India from Dusshera, Diwali nad Id to end with Christmas and the new year celebrations. Quarter on Quarter comparisons showed up great daredevil performances by industry leaders even as food … Continue reading
RBI stuck to its plan for India’s monetary policy not bowing to FI market commentators and probably internal pulls as it refused to consider reserve requirements cuts like China in the period it waits out a bottoming of inflation expectations before considering interest rate cuts The CRR is 6% currently except for CBLO, ACU (overseas … Continue reading
The 14% contribution of the food inflation may well bring cheer to the WPI number as Food caught a -3.36% score for the week ended December 24th to bring primary articles to 0.10% from a low 3% number last week and fuel remained suspended at 14.6% for another 25-30% of the basket. Everyuthing else in … Continue reading
As 2012 begins on a low note , market levels are encouraging enough for investors to make a commitment to India for more than a few million and they laso have been able to play the non FII traders in the market who continue to roll over (angel brok) short positions in short of the … Continue reading
Bank of America on the other side and lately some banks here have started looking happier only on days when the market has crashed beyond expectations, making these a regular weekly feature of the market. Though Bank of america has been outwitted by the Euro and will bleed for more time, the india markets and its … Continue reading
The classic inverted yield curve is caused by a liquidity / solvency crisis and one could very easily be caused in India if attention is not paid right now. As we worried last two weeks, short term liquidity drying up despite auctions has taken the short yields to 9.3% a new premium for these two … Continue reading
The weekly numbers for the December 3 week continued on a much higher plane even as governments and markets battled with the 9+ figure for November with Fuel group capped at a 0.3 MOM increase to a 15.23% rate, Food rate down to 4.35% from a 6.6% in Nov 26 figures, and Primary articles looking … Continue reading
RBI is unlikely to post extra liquidity except thru 9% auctions to buy bonds at their window weekly. There will be no CRR cut, non food inflation expected to trudge down to negate everything else and the rupee expected to walk out of the hole it dug itself. Funny thing is, all of this is … Continue reading
Though a late market rally on Friday has taken away the gleam of an easy short for Monday, short covering in the last hour may also add to those planning to cap the trading range with a few swats with the bat. In bonds however, the easing of yields to 8.75% is not so certain either … Continue reading
November buzzes everyone, December is too cold Sun comes out in the East, but the East is all sold! All the talk of potential markets in retail and consumption, engendering domestic demand ( in China) and even the imminent collapse of Europe ( not just not happening, in danger of engendering imprudent fiscal expenditure by … Continue reading
The Last Thursday of the month, promises among them a “sequestered” trading week in the US as the markets close for the holidays today afternoon. The promise of lower short positions on the Nifty also seems a little possible as only 51% of the contracts have been rolled over, and the markets may find enough … Continue reading
And remember something else about being India. About being a nation of 1 billion cricket happy audience who were relieved that despite Marlon Samuels, Chanderpaul and the Bravo, we are still ahead 2-0 at home after having destroyed ourselves in T20 and in foreign tours of England Also lets remember that Indian corporates own the … Continue reading
India reported its October figures for inflation still near the September’s 9.72%. The 9.73% figure was stuck with a high food and fuel component of 11 and 14.5% The core inflation figure remains equally tense at 7.7% India has lived with historically higher rates than most economies, its nominal growth always outpacing inflation by 7-8% … Continue reading
I feel like a college kid again ( My alma mater’s reports of PPOs and PPIs are heating the business papers this morning too) as the banking regulator in desh clarifies on Bloomberg that the Banking Regulation Act, voting rights of 15% for promoters and another legislation after that mean that new banks can possibly … Continue reading
As Yes Bank signs on to a 600 bps savings bank deposit rate, and food inflation ticks down from 15 to 11%, the refusal of yields to predicate a proposition in the double digits forsooths that the RBI will stop around here if and when inflation trends down. It seems to me that more of … Continue reading
With no changes to CRR and SLR, the RBI committed a dry 25 bp to its 500 bp hikes from February 2010, enumerating inflation expectations / liquidity as its key policy targets. The move is mild following market expectations of continuing rate hikes on the overnight rate. Also there is a commitment from the Guv … Continue reading
As usual, with the monthly WPI slated later in the day, the static 9.32% weekly inflation rate for Oct 1 is not the focus. Policy rates in india will likely continue bucking the global rate cut trends as inflation is being imported from fiscal dilution across globall currencies and RBI is likely to continue its … Continue reading
Happy Thursdays is a weekly statement fromt he Advantage zyaada house and almost always includes a comment on the latest India inflation figures, watermarks for market related statistics globally and our rare direct comment on global markets’ direction including facts that make us sing together..It usually show up unsung ot me too, so get busy … Continue reading
Update: CRR has been cut 25 bps and there may be more CRR cuts. The channel being fixed the repo rate of 8.25% means a MSF rate of 9.25% and a Reverse Repo rate of 7.25% still be paid out by RBI . A SLR cut of some kind and a SLR deposit rate increase may … Continue reading
However, India concedes a new inflation orbit With imported inflation running through the basic inputs for well over a year and price rise now taking place in Consumer Staples, RBI raised its inflation target to 7% and in fact market commentary is likely to concede it to a consensus of 8% in the next 5-6 … Continue reading
with the Friday tray of goodies gone..diesel and LPG are upgraded to almost profitable for OMCs. India inc is on a roll waiting for the fuel inflation to build up in the July treports. Stock market volumes across India, US, China and elsewhere have been down by 10-30% ( in the US NYSE now trades … Continue reading
Inflation WoW came out as expected at 11.7% for food inflation, 12.86% for Primary Articles and the consolidated number at 9.02% ahead of the unscheduled eGOM meeting for Diesel and Kerosene price corrections that will keep inflation up. Expectations are normalising to a higher level and in an hour or so the bank policy for … Continue reading
While the “bank rate” has been already used into Indian policy as the commercial benchmark for banks to lend and thus borrow, the policy rates set by the RBI in the ordinarily and now by policy fixed channel of 100 bp has definitely made Fixed Income more interesting with yields touching 9% soon whenever a … Continue reading
A 50 bp hike, addition of a MSF rate 100 points above the repo rate and the removal of the reverse repo rate as a floater. It would be npow in a fixed channel denoting the lower end of the channel at 100 bp below the repo rate. The market should really welcome this policy … Continue reading
