India Morning Report: It’s the banks, stupid!

The January series, with three days to go in the New Year, has started optimistically and apparently is in no hurry to trade. however within the two trading sessions including the first 15 minutes of today, Banknifty has already managed to 11600 levels without undue weightage to the losing PSUs. That being the target no

Bank Policy Wednesday: India stands PAT on rates in December

Even as RBI shows concern about the retail inflation, it has probably factored in the welfare sustenance supply chain requirement that has necessitated a higher tick of Food inflation likely to last till 2015. Even though the jump in core inflation to 2.66% has reached worrying levels, the RGR regime has played it on the

India Morning Report: Markets slip as PSU bank investors stay away

Active index and Banknifty balancing in a stable India economy above 6% growth involved the usual confidence investing in PSU banks a two thirds of the Banknifty to and or xis, HUL and a select set of defensives , that have disappeared as markets fall thru additional support levels. Apart from the loss to Ashwini

Bank Policy Tuesday: RBI Governor completes policy action

With the forced liquidity constraints as the currency devolved on the nation in June ( after May 21 announcement) RBI was stuck in the middle of a rate cut leg of its policy to encourage growth. Already hampered by banks using Central Bank liquidity to the extent of INR 2 Tln instead of market, the

India Morning Report: Markets negative ahead of expected rate action

  Most economists and bankers are in consonance  that RGR may well post a higher repo rate number from the Central Bank Quarters today and thus Markets, teetering at 6100 levels since yesterday along with our expected markdowns on currency and bonds coming in play are negative on bank stocks and the market is ready

India Morning Report : Rally snarled by a lack of fundamental strength (seen earlier)

Though the Indian growth rate will be beyond the reach of most emerging markets and outside the projected future rates for any OECD countries, the growth in GDP below 5% and the return of food inflation is scotching confidence in the markets as it waits on edge for  the Tapering news to go by and

India Morning Report: Markets steady, India facing uphill task

  The Indices opened barely in the red after a dull week of Economic data . Trade deficit reported under a $10 Bln for June as Gold imports were blocked out but Inflation on CPI climbed back to 10% in a precursor to fuel inflation expected now to climb back from a barely settled in

India Morning Report: A new bank, not Citi, 8 not 4 and numerous other slips to the mile..

Vikram Pandit’s new efforts in India with Kampani’s JM Financial may get JM a 10% bump in stock quotes but it is unlikely that his 50% buy of the subsidiary and 490 million warrants worth 3% of the listed company with Hari Aiyar and wife in the new bank application at this stage will build

Bank Policy Tuesday: DMK steals policy limelight, Rate cut hopes of India Inc

Though we did not suspect the political mulligatawny soup that will lead to a face off in the Parliament on the Lankan Tamils issue and should in fact be used by Indian polity to align to US on this issue and come down on belligerent China friendly Lanka, the very least done today in the political arena

Bank Policy Tuesday: 90% expect a rate cut. Sorry, says RBI Governor. India wins.

Despite the political improbability of this being counted as a standoff by the understanding P Chidambaram, this will be the most advocated course by us as Indian Food inflation starts into gear and despite non Food inflation now being below 4% the banks’ predisposition to trust their models earning a good profit in such rate

Bank Policy Tuesday: Rates are due for a big cut tomorrow..(incl the Mid Term Economic Review FY 13)

  Maybe only 10% can see it well enough to vouch for a bigger CRR cut this morning but the news of Economic bottoming out and the data outlook from infation and IIP could well translate into a big Pre-March boost for the Economy tomorrow. Any boost in the rest of the Financial year is hardly

India Inflation Report ( September 2012)

As expected, fuel inflation jumped to 11.88% and though Food inflation was below 8% a drop of almost 1.5% to 7.86% and primary articles to an almost respectable 8.77% from above 10% the overall inflation is too high for the government already blackmailed by the prospect of rising oil prices to factor in a rate

Bank Credit Policy (September 2012) : Fixed Income Markets Celebrate India Reform 5.0

  Given that Inflation was also expected to be lower before the Wednesday announcement for WPI and the Diesel hike importantly, it is understandable that 1 in 5 economists in the latest surveys still expected a rate cut to put pressure on the unruffled Central Bank Governor. Nomura economists and even Breakout Nations’ Author Sajjid

India Inflation Reports (May 2012) : Last series for WPI data?

The use of monthly CPI data for now more than 14-15 months with Y-o-Y inflation comparisons available for 2 months on the trot, it may now be a matter of time before the WPI data becomes secodnary in the Indian scheme. Consumer point inflation though has been refashioned and some may want to verify it

2012 India Economic Survey

Inflation 6.5-7 % by March Recommends Fixed rate of Diesel subsidy /Litre FY12 Growth at 6.9% ( as per Advance Estimates , GDP to INR 52.5Tln ) Survey projects 7.6% +/- 0.25% for FY2013 FY14 Growth seen at 8.6% Inflation may fall even below 6.5% in FY13 but Monetary policy needs to adjust to fluctuationsin

Happy Thursdays! A good day for economics

Hero Moto Corp, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Auto all hit expectations right and made merry of the third quarter encompassing a giant Festival run for India from Dusshera, Diwali nad Id to end with Christmas and the new year celebrations. Quarter on Quarter comparisons showed up great daredevil performances by industry leaders even as food

India Bond Impact ( Fixed Income Report) : RBI sticks to CRR, likely no cuts in CRR, SLR

RBI stuck to its plan for India’s monetary policy not bowing to FI market commentators and probably internal pulls as it refused to consider reserve requirements cuts like China in the period it waits out a bottoming of inflation expectations before considering interest rate cuts The CRR is 6% currently except for CBLO, ACU (overseas

Happy Thursdays! Food inflation corrects

The 14% contribution of the food inflation may well bring cheer to the WPI number as Food caught a -3.36% score for the week ended December 24th to bring primary articles to 0.10% from a low 3% number last week and fuel remained suspended at 14.6% for another 25-30% of the basket. Everyuthing else in

Happy Thursdays! A trading thursday before the new series

As 2012 begins on a low note , market levels are encouraging enough for investors to make a commitment to India for more than a few million and they laso have been able to play the non FII traders in the market who continue to roll over (angel brok) short positions in short of the

Happy Thursdays! Another week, Another crash

Bank of America on the other side and lately some banks here have started looking happier only on days when the market has crashed beyond expectations, making these a regular weekly feature of the market. Though Bank of america has been outwitted by the Euro and will bleed for more time, the india markets and its

India Bond Impact (Fixed Income Report) : Inverted yield Curve accentuates mismatch

The classic inverted yield curve is caused by a liquidity / solvency crisis and one could very easily be caused in India if attention is not paid right now. As we worried last two weeks, short term liquidity drying up despite auctions has taken the short yields to 9.3% a new premium for these two

Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation

The weekly numbers for the December 3 week continued on a much higher plane even as governments and markets battled with the 9+ figure for November with Fuel group capped at a 0.3 MOM increase to a 15.23% rate, Food  rate down to 4.35% from a 6.6% in Nov 26 figures, and Primary articles looking

India Bond Impact (Fixed Income report): RBI purchases ‘ominous’ to another 9% bout

Though a late market rally on Friday has taken away the gleam of an easy short for Monday, short covering in the last hour may also add to those planning to cap the trading range with a few swats with the bat. In bonds however, the easing of yields to 8.75% is not so certain either

Happy Thursdays! November buzzes everyone

November buzzes everyone, December is too cold Sun comes out in the East, but the East is all sold! All the talk of potential markets in retail and consumption, engendering domestic demand ( in China) and even the imminent collapse of Europe ( not just not happening, in danger of engendering imprudent fiscal expenditure by

Happy Thursdays! F&O Expiry vs FDI in retail

The Last Thursday of the month, promises among them a “sequestered” trading week in the US as the markets close for the holidays today afternoon. The promise  of lower short positions on the Nifty also seems a little possible as only 51% of the contracts have been rolled over, and the markets may find enough

Happy Thursdays! Let’s forget inflation, aviation, consolidation and eternal damnation

And remember something else about being India. About being a nation of 1 billion cricket happy audience who were relieved that despite Marlon Samuels, Chanderpaul and the Bravo, we are still ahead 2-0 at home after having destroyed ourselves in T20 and in foreign tours of England Also lets remember that Indian corporates own the

Happy Thursdays! The India Inflation reports (October 2011)

India reported its October figures for inflation still near the September’s 9.72%. The 9.73% figure was stuck with a high food and fuel component of 11 and 14.5% The core inflation figure remains equally tense at 7.7% India has lived with historically higher rates than most economies, its nominal growth always outpacing inflation by 7-8%

Happy Thursdays! An inflation sun for everyone, and we’ve had too much sun please..

I feel like a college kid again ( My alma mater’s reports of PPOs and PPIs are heating the business papers this morning too) as the banking regulator in desh clarifies on Bloomberg that the Banking Regulation Act, voting rights of 15% for promoters and another legislation after that mean that new banks can possibly

Happy Thursdays! Inflation pulls ways and means advances

As Yes Bank signs on to a 600 bps savings bank deposit rate, and food inflation ticks down from 15 to 11%, the refusal of yields to predicate a proposition in the double digits forsooths that the RBI will stop around here if and when inflation trends down. It seems to me that more of

Happy Thursdays! The india inflation reports for September

As usual, with the monthly WPI slated later in the day, the static 9.32% weekly inflation rate for Oct 1 is not the focus. Policy rates in india will likely continue bucking the global rate cut trends as inflation is being imported from fiscal dilution across globall currencies and RBI is likely to continue its

Happy Thursdays! Another toast to Global Duality

Happy Thursdays is a weekly statement fromt he Advantage zyaada house and almost always includes a comment on the latest India inflation figures, watermarks for market related statistics globally and our rare direct comment on global markets’ direction including facts that make us sing together..It usually show up unsung ot me too, so get busy

September Bank Policy review : Rate hike again!

Update: CRR has been cut 25 bps and there may be more CRR cuts. The channel being fixed the repo rate of 8.25% means a MSF rate of 9.25% and a Reverse Repo rate of 7.25% still be paid out by RBI . A SLR cut of some kind and a SLR deposit rate increase may

Bank Policy Tuesday: RBI stays true to inflation objectives

However, India concedes a new inflation orbit With imported inflation running through the basic inputs for well over a year and price rise now taking place in Consumer Staples, RBI raised its inflation target to 7% and in fact market commentary is likely to concede it to a consensus of 8% in the next 5-6

Happy Thursdays! The India June Reports on inflation and expectations

with the Friday tray of goodies gone..diesel and LPG are upgraded to almost profitable for OMCs. India inc is on a roll waiting for the fuel inflation to build up in the July treports. Stock market volumes across India, US, China and elsewhere have been down by 10-30% ( in the US NYSE now trades

Happy Thursdays! What else to expect..(Early Report)

Inflation WoW came out as expected at 11.7% for food inflation, 12.86% for Primary Articles and the consolidated number at 9.02% ahead of the unscheduled eGOM meeting for Diesel and Kerosene price corrections that will keep inflation up. Expectations are normalising to a higher level and in an hour or so the bank policy for

Happy Thursdays! The bank rate catastrophe | Advantage Research

While the “bank rate” has been already used into Indian policy as the commercial benchmark for banks to lend and thus borrow, the policy rates set by the RBI in the ordinarily and now by policy fixed channel of 100 bp has definitely made Fixed Income more interesting with yields touching 9% soon whenever a

Bank Policy Tuesday: Kicking reforms and the inflation poodle

A 50 bp hike, addition of a MSF rate 100 points above the repo rate and the removal of the reverse repo rate as a floater. It would be npow in a fixed channel denoting the lower end of the channel at 100 bp below the repo rate. The market should really welcome this policy