Tried and tested , yet new mechanisms of 2013
Of course, the markets could still decide to browbea
t the equities segment further from here despite the mild recovery at the end of the session. As of now my plans for going to Ahmedabad are on course and the indian Ph D programs are getting better lookie loos again with Ahmedabad “Management” ranked in the Top 100. More importantly for the markets, delivery based buying cannot be expected to ramp up in this rally as retail investors are not just stung by 2008 as journalists perceive or want to name the shroud, but are infinitely better placed by investing in inflationary spending than in equities for the future canvas.
Mutual Funds, Insurance and Bank savings still come next and pretty importantly yesterday’s negative IIP score and a near 11% CPI inflation clip ( more than 11% decidedly in urban areas, but thats just the trend) are unlikely to matter to this question of volumes. A slowdown in bank deposits could be an interesting quasi middle management at 100s of growing India corporates and IT investors could take to watching as it mirrors the real response to the production slowdown even as investment makes a faltering return to the Indian Economy and the Savings Investment gap recedes.
Revival of fortunes in steel seem to have hit an “early call” WALL a new block and tackle strategy likely to hit traders nah speculators in the F&O segment and though I normally desist but the morning call on JP Associates straddle buy invites my derisory attention by the spades. The JP Associates stock is unlikely to tank from 71-75 levels and if one expects action in the scrip in this series further it would be a clear positive, likely kicking off the pre budget mini rally instead of the rally we were going to have at the start of the series. Of course those promoting this market hiccup were the ones betting on fundamentals instead and thus calling off the big pre budget move.
Are Sun Pharma and TCS yet Defensives?
Much as Consumer goods led by HUL had been lumped in Defensives with Pharma, so also today while Pharma while awaiting the Domestic breakout remains defensive as a sector, stocks like Glenmark and Stride Arcolabs aren’t and Sun Pharma is probably unlikely to last in the Defensives list too long (it ould not be shifted on account of Taro, however)
Similarily IT as a sector and TCS as a defensive remain sectoral strategies or more Big Pig strategies at the start of the macro uptrend where Trendlines can be drawn and in such moves as are in 2013, the stock probably would move out as a mainstream investment much like Infosys earlier. Either way those watching for a bottomed out markets are right in prognosing the comfort moves in stocks like TCS and Sun as a likely vote for no Bull run than the other way around and thus the to get cast in the same leagues as HUL, Sterlite and SESA which would be the Defensives the markets could ascribe. While Axis Bank may not get rebranded as the ‘defensive’ for 2013’s mini moves, Airtel still likely will be as the corporate gets shafted out of bull only and 130-30 portfolios for lack of a volatility linked move in the stock
Meanwhile the Tata Steel calls are good to sell off probably as JSPL and SAIL indicated a slowness in the sector which is to be shed in 2013 and 2014 so it is also the time for buying this defensive as well for Domestic fund houses avoiding buying for so long since August as they get another Start of Rally point to invest surpluses.
Banks say meeooww
Banks are the move I am waiting for as PSU banks finally acquiesce to getting re-rated instead of trying trading jumps to catch up with the gap created by the NPL imbroglio in the last six months at Banknifty 13500. Thus the move from 12,400 on the Banknifty and it is not made today, will be a decisive one as Public Policy recedes and Finance takes over as the bete noir of the India Comeback strategy for 2020 and beyond.
- India Morning Report: Some New Shoots , Some Old Short Stuff..Nifty Rolls Right In 2013 (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Bulls stranglehold can withstand bigger volatility (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Go pork on your investments said the offended unsaved friend.. (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: That’s it. Endgame begins before New year ? (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: At least having followers ensure you don’t get to listen to sermons on Destroyed Value from rising indices (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: Held off the report till Modi win was announced.. (awardz.wordpress.com)
- India Morning Report: wait can’t we just short some of the fat ones right now? (awardz.wordpress.com)