India Morning Report: Recovering India’s growth, Reminding populations of death and poverty and Replacing lightbulbs

ONGC India Ltd, Kakinada Branch office

ONGC India Ltd, Kakinada Branch office (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Seriously, How many people does it take to replace a light bulb? If you are Duvvoori Subbarao and replacing the lightbulb is the “rate cut” direction, a likely dozen spring to mind including annointed commentator and Bankers’ Trust columnist Tamal Bandhopadhyaya who after more than 20 interviews with Head Honchos of Banks has finally broken through in at least he believes he can also cast Subbarao’s mind with absolute certainty and get friends in high (street) banks.

 

Holding on to the Capex Cycle for Growth

 

Investments that seemed to start to recover in the latter half of the fiscal, January’s FDI flows still an enthusiastic affirmation of India Inc being the growth engine for the globe esp with most looking askance at China for investment growth from equity and bonds. Indian bond markets could well be on the verge of a colossal turn down having locked in a rate cut and equity markets enjoying a flurry every intraday as traders make sure there is a volatility iller with extreme moves intra day souring the longer run investor to no end except keeping busy before the definitive move Tuesday.

 

Bank Policy Tuesday apart, Capex investment in India has also not recovered because of other substantive reasons including lack of executive approval, seminal moves like the ascension of NaMo to the Centre for BJP and the continuing dissing of the Welfare Economy as unsubstantive and too short term for India.

 

Flagging India Defence

 

Naval approvals to be refused to KG6 and other Reliance Gas wells off the coast of Bombay bring out the real Mumbaikar and Reliance supporter who would rather point to Corruption in India’s Defense ( which unfortunately may also be one of the main reasons) than having any substantive debates on India’s security concerns precluded by the Indian proclivity for secrecy which unlike the US or NATO or even Pakistan, seems to be at the detriment of National Policy in the area so that industrialists like Ambani or Mittals or the Executive team at Maruti can duly come out with Joint methods and at least look to be in sync with governments in 8 out of 10 cases while the Defence establishment is probably still awaiting another pay revision and finding other reasons for supporting outdated Russion technology for its Defence plans. Not that M&M is actually proceeding with its businesssin domestic Ordnance but even that was such a coming out for India inc in the sector. Intelligence of Chinese supplying India’s neighbours like Nepal and Bhutan read alongside news of Pakistan ceding territory to China is a real threat and must be realised more substantially than total bans and outright decisions with a falling out later that has destroyed years of planning while China throttles ahead

 

Live issues for India Inc

 

Doubling royalties and ITC’s not breaking even on its FMCG products are ofcourse known hurdles we have discussed but markets also move on other things than Energy’s resplendent freedom bid that is moving ONGC and OMCs currently . Banking will be key to India Inc’s move to new highs likely in the first half of 2013 itself as Profits grow but Sales growth , in double digits in the December quarter could likely continue declining further as industrial production ┬árecovering on controlled costs and higher profits, suffers from flagging demand and Inflation is unlikely to reduce to any 5% level on WPI and will plod around 7-7.5% for the next 18 months one can look ahead

 

 

 

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