Happy Thursdays! The June IIP matches up with the June Trade, but why a $10 bln deficit?(Late Report)

Yes, we said nop one should pick this market and hope for a bull run at these levels and well it is still below 5200 but the June IIPs first and foremost are certainly a case for rejoicing. The IIP estimated at 5.5% after a 10 year low in May at the same rate, shot up to 10% in manufacuring with the weights in Mining and Electricity holding the IIP at an overall 8.8%.

China’s IIP at its lowest stayed above 7% as Q2 GDP had come in at 9.5%. However the slowdown is much a projection of July and now August and the slowdown in India may be fiscally more a disaster as China runs a surplus on its year-to-date Budget spening. India has drawn 40% of its expenditure budget for the year but has mainted more than the 18% buoyancy in Tax revenues to maintain a fiscal deficit within the target range for a 4.6% year. China has a budget surplus of CNY 1.93 Tln for the same period. China is also switching monetary policy in the scond half citing loosening of controls on agri and small business lending as the way to blank out the lag effects of a tight monetary policy Staying on China, affordable housing also is one of the thrust areas

The question of China crops up in comparison of the trade as well as India’s July trade deficit again crossed from $7.55 bln in June to $10 bln. India maintains a great $360 bln run rate for exports at the end of July against a target of $292 bln but a fiscal deficit of $100 bln and more could queer the pitch even as fiscal spending gets tighter from here, though without challenges from tax revenues as Results season continues to deliver much more than expectations and retail consumption is strong without the inflation having exited. Commodities trundling down at a fast pace even as the Dollar adjusts to a new rebalancing means that your and RBI’s investment in Gold is going to earn it a handsome dividendwhile Oil and basic goods inflation finally starts to come down in the August data in a week or so, 

India’s debt to GDP ratio now another piece of dataeveryone wants is still less than 80% and the External debt(ET) $320 bln is still more or less covered by our Forex reserves itself